Silicon Metal (Si≥97%) Production Continued to Decline [SMM Analysis]

India's chrome ore production rose 12% year-on-year to 3.53 million mt in fiscal year 2025-26, while ferrochrome production increased 10% to 1.49 million mt, according to data presented by the Indian Ferro Alloy Producers' Association (IFAPA) at the 6th International Ferro Alloys Conference (IFAC 2026) in Goa. The figures were released alongside data showing India's manganese ore imports rose 27% year-on-year to 4.03 million mt in the first half of 2026, underscoring a raw-material picture IFAPA described as mixed: rising domestic chrome ore and ferrochrome output on one hand, alongside deepening import reliance for manganese on the other. The data was presented against the backdrop of India's expanding steel sector, which IFAPA said is creating a new growth runway for domestic ferro-alloy producers. India's crude steel production reached approximately 165 million mt in calendar year 2025, up more than 10% year-on-year, with demand expected to continue growing at around 7% annually. India is targeting roughly 300 million mt of steelmaking capacity by fiscal year 2031, a scale IFAPA said would significantly widen the opportunity for chromium, manganese, silicon and other alloying inputs. The association also noted that India's per-capita steel consumption has risen from around 24 kg in 1991 to about 109 kg in 2025, a threshold it said could support a further phase of consumption growth. IFAPA Chairman Manish Sarda called for faster exploration and development of domestic chrome, manganese and other critical minerals to reduce import dependence, arguing that auction frameworks for mineral resources should be structured to encourage actual mine development rather than simply rewarding the highest bid. He said several manganese ore mines auctioned at high premiums remain non-operational because the underlying economics are unviable, a dynamic he said applies more broadly to securing indigenous raw-material supply for India's ferro-alloy sector under the government's Aatmanirbhar Bharat, or self-reliance, policy. IFAPA separately called for competitive power costs and rationalization of electricity-related charges and levies for energy-intensive ferro-alloy producers, alongside zero import duties on raw materials for which adequate domestic grades are unavailable.

Valterra Platinum, formerly Anglo American Platinum, will announce a comprehensive chrome strategy in February, executive head of processing operations Agit Singh disclosed during a company value-chain media briefing. "We continue to optimize our chrome strategy and we'll be announcing a full-blown chrome strategy in February," Singh said, without providing further detail on the strategy's scope or contents. The disclosure came as Singh detailed Valterra's processing operations spanning Platreef, UG2, Merensky and Great Dyke ores. The company operates three dedicated chrome operations, at its Amandelbult, Mototolo and Modikwa mines, all located on the eastern limb of South Africa's Bushveld Complex, where chrome is prevalent alongside platinum-group metals. Chrome recovery circuits at Amandelbult and Mototolo are continuing to be optimised, Singh said, describing "considerable work around chrome" as planned. Singh also outlined a technical tension between Valterra's chrome and PGM businesses: chrome present in high-UG2 ore can be "poisonous" to smelting operations if not managed. To address this, Valterra blends concentrate from its base-metal-rich Mogalakwena and Unki operations with material from its chrome-bearing UG2 sources specifically to dilute chrome content before it reaches the smelter, an approach Singh and executive head of mining operations Willie Theron described as a key advantage of the company's integrated asset base. The February chrome strategy announcement will be closely watched in the context of Valterra's broader ambitions in the sector. The company's Vision 2031 strategy has separately targeted chrome concentrate sales exceeding 2 million mt over the next five years, a target that emerged publicly around the same time Valterra was identified by Bloomberg and other outlets as the party behind an unsolicited takeover approach for Northam Platinum, a deal Northam's own CEO said was partly driven by Northam's standing as a major chrome producer. No further detail on the February announcement's scope, timing precision, or relationship to the Northam process has been disclosed.

[Pre-holiday stockpiling demand and supplier cost support stabilize and rebound silicon metal prices]: This week, spot and futures prices of silicon metal stabilized and rebounded. As of September 24, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW, and #441 silicon was at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the SI2611 contract stabilized and rebounded during the week, initially pulling back to around 8,410 yuan/mt early in the week before stabilizing. Mid-week, pre-holiday downstream restocking demand and cost support boosted sentiment, driving a consolidating rebound. It closed at 8,530 yuan/mt on Thursday afternoon, up 85 yuan/mt WoW. In terms of market quotes and transactions, with the two holidays approaching, downstream pre-holiday restocking and export demand increased. Coupled with rising freight costs, spot-futures price spread quotes in Tianjin and east China were pushed higher. Some silicon suppliers raised quotes slightly WoW, and silicon enterprises' sentiment to hold prices firm recovered from earlier levels. Low-priced supply in the market tightened WoW, trading activity recovered, and the price center stabilized and rebounded.